Shocking Forecast for 2011 - Economy of Alberta

I had the privilege of hearing one of Alberta’s top economists Todd Hirsch. He talked about his economy of Alberta forecast for 2011. I wanted to share the overview of it and would love to hear your thoughts on this!

Below are the 5 trends that will continue through 2011 and the singe trend that will most likely reverse. I personally was a bit surprised by this prediction and will be very interested to hear your thoughts along with seeing what truly happens in 2011.
5 Trends That Will Continue & 1 Shocking Reversing Trend

Trend #1) Economic Power Shift
* Economic movement to continue to push towards the western part of Canada away from central Canada.


Trend #2) Interest Rates
* Rates will increase over 2011 and the Bank of Canada will probably raise by end of 2011 a total of 2.5 basis points
* The first increase will most likely happen mid 2011


Trend #3) Real Estate Market
* Housing starts dipped down
* over 2010, the real estate market in Calgary and across the province of Alberta ‘bumped along’ with no real direction. This will be the case for 2011.
* It’s not a gloomy forecast for the market, however a stable year with slight bumps is welcomed!
* 2011 is still a rebuilding year and consumer confidence is increasing


Trend #4) Oil Prices
* Oil prices will continue to climb slightly
* May breach the $100 mark and anything between $90-$115 is a good price for the industry


Trend #5) BRIC Countries
* Russia isn’t going to be apart of the same sentence. It’s economy is still good, but because the system of government and corruption within the government, it can’t continue to be in the same sentence as Brazil, India and China
* Brazil could be leading these countries in 2011
* 2000 – 2008 China was leading as an economic super power but now Brazil could be taking it’s place.


BONUS Trend Natural Gas prices will most likely not recover and continue to be a soft spot in Alberta.

Shocking Reversing Trend

The US economy will actually post strong growth in 2011. There has been so much doom and gloom on the US economy that majority have written them off. The double dip isn’t a danger any longer and will surprise and the GDP growth will exceed most forecasts. There are still problems especially in their labour market being close to 10% unemployment. What will be driving the GDP growth and the US economy will be their exports of their high end manufacturing and the falling dollar will be a factor here. The second area of GDP growth will be the business investment meaning companies opening their wallets and spending their money on machinery and equipment and not hiring as of yet. This however isn’t going to translate into good news for Canada. This good growth for the US isn’t driven by the consumer, our exports will still be in a harder place over 2011.

So there you have it… Thoughts?