Why China Won't Start Trade War Over Tariffs

Hot on the heels of President Barack Obama's announcement that the US would place tariffs on 35 percent of the automobile tires imported from China, the Chinese have cried foul to World Trade Organization, claiming the tariffs are "abusive." Is a trade war beginning between the world's two largest economies? Hardly.

While pundits contemplate such a possibility, at least one expert believes that the Chinese aren't as interested in the single issue of tariffs as much as they are about their current course of geo-political expansion. Mike Green, author of the espionage novel Path of Thunder, from Peacemaker Productions (www.pathofthunder.com), believes that China's next steps are driven by a far more complex agenda of global military and economic ascendency. Green dismissed the tariffs as union pandering, warning that Americans need to be concerned about something other than the obvious - the awakening of a sleeping giant.

"The U.S. Pacific Fleet has steadily declined in numbers of ships and submarines since the end of the Cold War, and follow on generations have lost momentum in both numbers and funding," he said. "The over budget F-22 Raptor, our next generation air supremacy fighter that set a fifteen year developmental record, leaves the Pentagon cringing as it refocuses on smaller, more nimble elements of our military components better equipped to deal with insurgencies. Continuing the trend, the Navy's CVN-78 generation of aircraft carriers has been cut back to a five year ‘more sustainable' build out pace, and our new administration is not known for its pro-military bias. Japan's new government is moving our Marines on Okinawa to Guam, nearly a thousand miles further from China's waters. We see a curious trend.
All of these things potentially represented threats to China - could there be something more to this story?"

Green also made note of the Chinese lack of respect for our diplomats. Our new Secretary of the Treasury drew laughs recently when he tried to convince a Chinese audience of the soundness of additional Chinese investment in the United States.

"The United States in the midst of this entire decline has just had a titanic financial hiccup, and, in the face of spiraling and unprecedented deficits, is now re-evaluating its spending priorities across a broad front," Green said. "The obvious loser so far has been the defense budget. So, with the US' flagging military presence, lost budgetary muscle and a dearth of respected diplomat in the region, our leverage there is dwindling."

"Also, until now, China has enjoyed the luxury of being able to pursue a very aggressive policy of militaristic expansion, while at the same time growing its influence over the United States through the financing of its national debt," Green added. "But now China's economy suffers with the rest of the world, and China's government faces considerable domestic unrest over a host of issues. Even with fresh signs of a recovery, China is faced with the prospect of a smaller economic surplus, forcing difficult decisions related to two looming demands: 1) Re-commitment to financing the United States' growing deficit, and 2) Filling China's share of the growing global military vacuum'."

"The lullaby that China isn't a threat to US national security is frighteningly similar to a jingle we were hypnotized by in the years leading up to December 7, 1941," Green warned. "Regardless of the tune, it would behoove inwardly focused policy makers to keep one eye open for the long haul, and re-tool our spending priorities with the growing Chinese threat in mind."

Talk of a trade war is just more noise that distracts us from the bigger picture.
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Rachel Friedman is a Staff Writer at News & Experts.